Playoff Race

This feature of the AFC North Homepage ranks the teams in each conference according to the NFL's playoff tiebreaking procedures.

Each week, it shows which teams would claim the NFL's twelve playoff berths if the season ended today.  Toward the end of the season, this page gives the playoff scenarios for teams that can clinch a playoff berth in the coming week.

Read on to learn more about what the Playoff Race page can tell you.

Color codes:   The background color of the row for each team shows its playoff status:

Rank:   Each team is ranked from 1 to 16 in its conference based on the NFL's tiebreaking procedures for determining the playoff teams.  The teams ranked 1–4 in each conference are the four division leaders, with the rest of the teams competing for the two Wild Card berths.

If two teams have the same rank number, that means I considered them "tied" for the purpose of this list, usually because I didn't feel like working through five or more levels of tiebreakers to find out which one comes out on top!  I'm much less likely to do the number-crunching early in the season, when teams haven't played enough games for the tiebreakers to make much sense yet. 

Ties between three or more teams are especially tricky; sometimes it might look like I should be able to break a tie between two of the teams easily, but I can't do it without figuring out the tiebreaking scenario for all three (or more).

W-L-T:  The team's overall win-loss record, the main measure by which teams are ranked.  A complete season is 16 games.

It is quite common for the #5 team to have a better record than the #4 team, since the top four slots automatically go to the four division leaders regardless of record.

AFC/NFC record:  The team's win-loss record within its own conference.  Every NFL team plays 12 games against opponents from its own conference.

Conference record is the second tiebreaker (after the result of a head-to-head game, if there was one) for teams that aren't in the same division.  It's the fourth tiebreaker for teams within the same division.

The conference record column is shaded dark gray for teams that are eliminated from the Wild Card race.  It's rare for a team to be eliminated from the Wild Card without also being eliminated from winning its division, but it can happen if the division is bad.

Division record:  The team's win-loss record within its own division.  Every NFL team plays 6 games against divisional opponents. 

Division record is the second tiebreaker (after the result of the head-to-head series, if it wasn't a split) for teams in the same division.  It's totally irrelevant for comparing teams that aren't in the same division; that's why each division has its own font color (purple for East, blue for North, green for South, red for West).

The division record column is shaded dark gray for teams that are eliminated from winning their division.  Once that happens, a team's only hope of making the playoffs is a Wild Card berth.

Scenarios/Notes:   This area shows additional information about a team's ranking, using tiny type, because it wouldn't fit otherwise!  You'll find three kinds of info here:

• Tiebreaker notes:   An explanation of which tiebreaker causes one team to be ranked ahead of others with the same record.  See the NFL Tiebreakers page for the long story.


• Playoff scenarios:   A listing of the combinations of wins and losses in the coming week that will guarantee the team a playoff berth (or a division championship, a first-round bye, or home field advantage throughout the playoffs, as the case may be).  I don't usually bother with scenarios involving ties, because they are so rare in the NFL.


• Playoff seeds:   When a team has both made the playoffs and nailed down a specific seed, the seed is given here along with the team's first-round playoff opponent, if known.

In case you were wondering...  

• Teams that are tied are listed in alphabetical order.


• Winning percentage is really what I use to rank win-loss records.  A record of 6-4 (.600) is better than 7-5 (.583). A record of 1-2 (.333) is the same thing as a record of 2-4 (.333).


• I make an exception when the number zero is involved.  I consider 8-0 to be a better record than 7-0, and 0-4 to be a worse record than 0-3.


• A record of 0-0 is treated as if it were a winning percentage of .500.

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