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Posted by AFC North at 15:10

How the Bengals can get the #3 seed

The Cincinnati Bengals have been rewarded for their good season with a nationally televised regular-season finale at Giants Stadium against the Jets. They already have a playoff spot secured; the only thing left to determine is whether Cincinnati or New England will be the #3 seed.

It remains to be seen if the Bengals consider the #3 seed more important than the opportunity to rest their starters, though. There are only a couple of benefits that the #3 seed has over the #4 seed:

  • If New England and Cincinnati both win in the Wild Card round, the #4 seed will have to play the #1 seed (Indianapolis, in this case), while the #3 will play the #2 seed (San Diego).

  • If the Bengals and Patriots both advance to the AFC Championship, the game would be played at the #3 seed's field.



The simplest way the Bengals can claim the #3 seed is by finishing with a better record than the Patriots. If the Patriots lose to the Texans today and the Bengals beat the Jets this evening, Cincinnati will finish 11-5 to New England's 10-6.

But if both teams win or both lose, the tiebreaker will come down to strength of victory, the total W-L record of the teams the Bengals/Patriots have beaten:



Bengals SOV
Opponent W-L
GB 10-5
PIT 8-7
CLE 4-11
BAL 8-7
CHI 6-9
BAL 8-7
PIT 8-7
CLE 4-11
DET 2-13
KC 3-12
NYJ (8-7)
Total 69-96

Patriots SOV
Opponent W-L
BUF 5-10
ATL 8-7
BAL 8-7
TEN 7-8
TB 3-12
MIA 7-8
NYJ 8-7
CAR 7-8
BUF 5-10
JAX 7-8
HOU (8-7)
Total 73-92




The Patriots have a better strength of victory right now, so the Bengals need a specific combination of games to fall a certain way in order to strengthen their SOV and weaken the Patriots' SOV enough to give them a better strength of victory. (In case you were wondering, if the Bengals and Patriots finish with the same strength of victory, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule, the total W-L record of all opponents, and New England has already clinched that tiebreaker.)

Here's the scenario if both teams win.

The following results MUST happen:

  • PIT beats MIA

  • CLE beats JAX


FIVE of the following must happen:

  • IND beats BUF (counts as two!)

  • NO beats CAR

  • GB beats ARI

  • KC beats DEN

  • BAL beats OAK

  • SEA beats TEN


So there's the list for Bengals fans hoping for a better seed!

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