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Posted by AFC North at 01:07

Week 16: Ravens playoff scenarios

A blizzard prompted the Ravens to move the start time of their game against Chicago a few hours later. It also delayed the Bears' arrival in Baltimore— if, indeed, they could be said to have arrived at all. The Bears turned the ball over six times and the Ravens destroyed Chicago 31-7. QB Joe Flacco threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns in Baltimore's regular season home finale.

Entering Week 16, the Ravens still have a shot at the AFC North championship. The Bengals own the tiebreaker with the Ravens thanks to wins in both of their meetings, but the Ravens can still finish with the best record in the division if they win out (at PIT and at OAK) and the Bengals lose out (vs. KC and at NYJ).

Thanks to Miami's loss to the Titans last week, the Ravens now control their own destiny for a Wild Card berth. If the Ravens finish 10-6, they are guaranteed the #5 seed in the AFC playoffs. The only teams that can finish tied with Baltimore at 10-6 are DEN, who the Ravens defeated head-to-head in Week 8; and CIN and NE, who will both clinch their divisions by winning a 10th game.

If the Ravens lose to the Steelers on Sunday, however, they will be thrust into a chaotic situation, with possibly as many as six teams aiming for a 9-7 finish in the final weeks. Here's how the Ravens stack up against their potential competitors in that scenario. (The order of the list is based on how much of a threat each team poses to the Ravens' playoff chances in that scenario, from most threatening to least threatening)

Team Opponents Notes
JAX at NE, at CLE The Jaguars would win a tiebreaker with the Ravens at 9-7 based on AFC record.
MIA vs. HOU, vs. PIT If the Ravens' one loss is to PIT, the tiebreaker with MIA would come down to strength of victory, and the Dolphins have a considerable advantage in that category.
NE vs. JAX, at HOU The Patriots defeated the Ravens in Week 4 and would therefore win a two-way tiebreaker with BAL. If the Ravens end up in a three-way tie with NE and DEN, the Ravens would win that tiebreaker thanks to a better AFC record than NE.
DEN at PHI, vs. KC The Ravens defeated the Broncos in Week 8 and would therefore win a two-way tiebreaker with DEN. If they end up in a three-way tie with DEN and either MIA or NYJ, the tiebreaker would come down to strength of victory.
NYJ at IND, vs. CIN The Ravens would win a tiebreaker with the Jets at 9-7 based on common games.
HOU at MIA, vs. NE The Ravens would win a tiebreaker with the Texans at 9-7 based on AFC record.
PIT at vs. BAL, at MIA The Ravens have clinched the divisional tiebreaker with the Steelers based on AFC North record.

Pretty confusing! That's why beating Pittsburgh is important— it keeps the Ravens' path to the playoffs under their own control.

The Ravens can lock up a playoff spot this week with a win and one of the following scenarios:

  • a JAX loss (at NE) and a DEN loss (at PHI).

  • a JAX loss and a NYJ loss (at IND).

  • a DEN loss, a NYJ loss, and a MIA loss (vs. HOU).


Most of these scenarios involve Ravens fans rooting for home teams that will be favored, so Baltimore has a decent chance of clinching a playoff berth this week.

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