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Posted by AFC North at 23:31

Week 16: Steelers playoff scenarios

So, what needs to happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs? Well, first of all, they need to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday and the Miami Dolphins on January 3 to finish 9-7.

This would secure the AFC North championship for the Bengals and the AFC East championship for the Patriots, meaning that neither CIN nor NE would interfere with the Wild Card race. It would also remove MIA from the scenario, since the Dolphins would be able to finish no better than 8-8.

That would leave 8-6 BAL and DEN, and 7-7 JAX, NYJ, HOU, and PIT all fighting for just two Wild Card spots!

If they win out, the Steelers need 4 out of 5 things to happen:

Scenario Opponents Notes
one DEN loss at PHI, vs. KC The Steelers beat the Broncos in Week 5 and would win a two-way tiebreaker if both finish 9-7.
one JAX loss at NE, at CLE The Jaguars would win a tiebreaker with the Steelers at 9-7 based on AFC record.
one NYJ loss at IND, vs. CIN The Jets would win a tiebreaker with the Steelers at 9-7 based on AFC record.
one JAX loss at OAK The Ravens have clinched the AFC North tiebreaker with the Steelers based on division record.
one HOU loss
   OR
two DEN losses
at MIA, vs. NE

at PHI, vs. KC

The Texans would win a tiebreaker with the Steelers at 9-7 based on common games.

If the Texans, Broncos, and Steelers all end up tied at 9-7, the Steelers will be left out based on AFC record or strength of victory.


Not so clear, huh? Well, another way to put this is that in addition to rooting for the Steelers against the Ravens, Pittsburgh fans can root for:

  • New England to beat the Jaguars

  • Miami to beat the Texans

  • Philadelphia to beat the Broncos

  • Indianapolis to beat the New York Jets


All four of the above are home teams, and all except the Colts are competing for playoff positions. The Colts are trying to stay undefeated.

If the Steelers defeat the Ravens and all four of the above games go Pittsburgh's way, the Steelers would control their own destiny heading into the final week of the regular season! In any case, the Steelers will not be eliminated in Week 16 unless they lose to the Ravens.

It remains to be seen whether the Steelers can muster a complete performance against their rivals, however. The defense has not been the same without this year without DE Aaron Smith and SS Troy Polamalu, and WR Hines Ward may not be able to play either; the Steelers have signed veteran receiver Joey Galloway to attempt to fill the gap on offense.

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